County rankings · computed from the data, updated daily
The large counties least likely to flood, burn or blow away
Oswego County, New York has the lowest FEMA National Risk Index score of the 592 US counties with 100,000 or more people: 28.7 out of 100 (FEMA National Risk Index 2023).
FEMA's National Risk Index scores every county 0 to 100 on expected annual losses from eighteen hazards, from hurricanes to wildfire to winter storms. This list takes counties of 100,000 or more with the lowest scores.
Low risk tends to mean inland, northern and not on a fault line. The temperature column shows what that costs in winters.
25 of 592 qualifying counties shown. Click a county for its page.
| # | County | FEMA risk /100 | Avg temp °F | Median home | Declarations since 1953 | People |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oswego, NY | 28.7 | 47 | $206K | 21 | 118K |
| 2 | Centre, PA | 36.6 | 49 | $354K | 15 | 159K |
| 3 | Mercer, PA | 38.0 | 49 | $181K | 13 | 111K |
| 4 | Monongalia, WV | 38.5 | 52 | $267K | 21 | 106K |
| 5 | Chittenden, VT | 39.1 | 46 | $515K | 32 | 168K |
| 6 | Jefferson, NY | 40.8 | 46 | $230K | 21 | 117K |
| 7 | St. Lawrence, NY | 44.6 | 44 | $145K | 19 | 109K |
| 8 | Washington, PA | 44.8 | 52 | $241K | 14 | 210K |
| 9 | Niagara, NY | 46.0 | 48 | $252K | 27 | 212K |
| 10 | Ontario, NY | 46.2 | 48 | $323K | 20 | 112K |
| 11 | Mesa, CO | 47.3 | 51 | $437K | 8 | 156K |
| 12 | Tompkins, NY | 47.4 | 47 | $353K | 20 | 103K |
| 13 | Sullivan, TN | 50.1 | 57 | $262K | 12 | 159K |
| 14 | Allegan, MI | 50.6 | 49 | $350K | 17 | 120K |
| 15 | Allen, OH | 50.6 | 52 | $192K | 10 | 102K |
| 16 | Butler, PA | 52.0 | 50 | $330K | 11 | 195K |
| 17 | Cambria, PA | 52.2 | 48 | $107K | 18 | 133K |
| 18 | Blair, PA | 52.4 | 50 | $178K | 18 | 123K |
| 19 | Portage, OH | 52.8 | 50 | $282K | 12 | 161K |
| 20 | Fairfield, OH | 53.6 | 53 | $369K | 13 | 159K |
| 21 | Schenectady, NY | 54.0 | 48 | $309K | 25 | 159K |
| 22 | Washington, TN | 54.3 | 57 | $309K | 16 | 133K |
| 23 | Miami, OH | 54.6 | 53 | $271K | 15 | 109K |
| 24 | Wayne, OH | 55.2 | 50 | $264K | 10 | 117K |
| 25 | Spotsylvania, VA | 55.6 | 57 | $465K | 19 | 141K |
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 (0–100, all hazards) · NOAA Climate Normals · Zillow ZHVI 2024 · FEMA Disaster Declarations 1953–2026. Population: Census 2023 estimates. Recomputed from the county database every day.
What the list shows
The 25 counties come from 9 states. New York appears most often, with 7 of the 25. Oswego, NY leads at 28.7; number 25, Spotsylvania, VA, sits at 55.6, a gap of 26.9 from top to bottom of the table.
Across all 592 counties over the 100,000-person floor, the median value of the ranking column (Natural Hazard Risk (FEMA)) is 88.1. Every county on this list is below that middle.
On housing, of the 25 with a Zillow figure, 5 have a median home under $200K and 1 is at $500K or more. The cheapest is Cambria, PA at $107K; the most expensive is Chittenden, VT at $515K.
How we rank
Every county with 100,000 or more residents in the Census 2023 estimate is eligible. Counties are ranked by Natural Hazard Risk (FEMA), lowest first, from FEMA National Risk Index 2023 (0–100, all hazards). A county missing any figure in the table is left out rather than scored as zero, which is why 592 of the 3,222 places in the county database qualify. Connecticut’s planning regions are excluded because they are not counties. The table is recomputed from the database every day, so figures here can move as sources update.
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