Where Are New York Residents Moving in 2026?

New York lost a net 130,000-plus residents to domestic migration in the most recent full-year count, and the outflow has not slowed heading into 2026. The people leaving are not just retirees chasing warm weather — they span every income bracket, according to a Citizens' Budget Commission analysis of 2025 data.

Where New Yorkers Are Actually Going

Florida absorbs more former New York residents than any other state, and by a wide margin. The Miami, Tampa, and Fort Lauderdale metro areas have entire neighborhoods that function as displaced boroughs at this point. Texas ranks second, with the Austin and Dallas corridors drawing younger professionals and families priced out of New York's housing market.

Beyond those two, the 2026 picture shows real movement into Tennessee (Nashville and Knoxville), North Carolina (Charlotte and Raleigh), South Carolina (Charleston), and Georgia (Atlanta suburbs). These states offer a combination of no or low income tax, housing costs well below the national median in many markets, and enough urban infrastructure to satisfy former city dwellers.

New Jersey and Connecticut also absorb large numbers of New Yorkers, but those are often lateral moves driven by school districts or housing space rather than tax relief. Both states carry high tax burdens of their own.

The Tax Math Driving the Moves

New York's top state income tax rate sits at 10.9% for income above $25 million, but the rates kick in hard well below that threshold. A New York City resident earning $200,000 pays a combined city and state marginal rate above 10% before federal taxes enter the picture. Add New York City's own income tax, which tops out around 3.876%, and the effective burden on a high earner becomes one of the steepest in the country.

Florida has no state income tax. Texas has no state income tax. Tennessee eliminated its income tax on wages entirely. For a household earning $300,000 a year, the annual savings from moving to one of these states can exceed $25,000 depending on deductions. Over a decade, that is real money.

Property taxes add another layer. New York's effective property tax rate ranks among the highest in the country. New Jersey's effective rate runs around 2.13%, which is actually worse, but the point stands: the Northeast as a region taxes property heavily. Florida's effective rate is closer to 0.89%, and several Sun Belt states come in even lower.

For New Yorkers thinking about the long game, estate planning is part of the calculation too. New York imposes its own estate tax with a low exemption threshold compared to the federal level. States like Florida and Texas impose no estate tax at all. See our full breakdown in Estate Tax by State: Where Your Heirs Pay Most.

Is the New Mayor a Factor?

Search data shows a notable spike in queries connecting mayoral leadership changes to New York City population decline. Zohran Mamdani won the 2025 Democratic primary and took office in early 2026, running on a platform of expanded rent control, higher business taxes, and significant redistribution programs. Whether his policies directly accelerate departures is too early to measure with hard data, but business sentiment surveys and commercial real estate vacancy rates in Manhattan both reflect uncertainty.

What is measurable: New York City's population declined across all income levels in 2025, the last full year of data available. High earners leaving for tax reasons has been the dominant story for years, but middle-income departures driven by cost of living represent a newer and more structurally damaging trend for the city's tax base.

What Destination States Offer Beyond Low Taxes

The states capturing New Yorkers in 2026 are not selling tax cuts alone. Tennessee has no income tax and no capital gains tax at the state level, which matters enormously for investors and business owners. North Carolina cut its flat income tax rate to 2.5% and has a roadmap to phase it down further. Florida offers a well-developed financial and legal infrastructure for wealthy transplants, including favorable trust laws and no capital gains tax.

For retirees specifically, the calculus often centers on Social Security taxation and investment income treatment. Our guide to Best States for Retirees to Avoid Taxes walks through exactly which destinations deliver the most relief on fixed and investment income.

Cost of living indexes show that even accounting for lower wages in some Sun Belt markets, total purchasing power improves significantly for most New York households that relocate. That gap has widened since 2022 and shows no sign of closing.

Key Takeaways

• New York lost a net 130,000-plus residents to domestic migration in the most recent annual count, with outflows continuing through early 2026.
• Florida and Texas remain the top two destinations, but Tennessee, North Carolina, and South Carolina are absorbing a fast-growing share of New York transplants.
• A household earning $300,000 annually can save more than $25,000 per year in state and local income taxes by moving from New York City to a no-income-tax state.

Run your own numbers with our state tax calculator and see exactly what you would keep by moving from New York to your target state.